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Preferred Investment Advisors (H.K.) Ltd. is licensed with Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Type 4 regulated activity (Advising on Securities), and may provide a full range of financial advisory services. Currently we are engaged by the Group’s fund for investment advisory services, mainly to provide business consulting and operation relations and assist their investment decisions.

BUSINESS PROFILE

Business Profile

If investors in Hong Kong have questions about the concept of investment, banks or securities brokers generally will ask investors to consult a financial adviser. The role of the financial adviser generally focuses on the following:

Personal financial planning and wealth management solutions for the benefit of investors, neutral towards the product vendors.
Provide professional and neutral financial planning solutions.
Act as a long-term financial planning partner and regularly review the program.
Act as a communication bridge between investors and product vendors.

SERVICE ADVANTAGE

Service Advantage

Preferred Investment Advisors (H.K.) Ltd. only offers financial products consulting and investment advisory services to the affiliates’ funds or long-term relationship clients to assist their investment decisions.

PREFERRED INSIGHTS

Preferred Insights

Investment Research Weekly17 August 2026

Key Calls This Week本週核心判斷

Inflation data has cooled, and the probability of a September rate hike has significantly declined, though the path remains volatile. The July core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, while PPI remained flat. The implied probability of a September rate hike in the interest rate market has dropped from over 60% to below 40%. The market is now focusing on the August 26 core PCE release and the Jackson Hole symposium starting on August 27.

The rally has entered its third week, with the structure shifting from broad-based gains to sector rotation. Memory and equipment stocks have taken the lead, while earlier strong large-cap platform stocks are seeing profit-taking. With a dense schedule of earnings and macro data, along with rapid fund flows between sectors, short-term volatility may increase.

III

Memory's 'late-cycle' pricing and fundamentals are misaligned, but this gap is beginning to narrow. SanDisk's investor day, featuring multi-year long-term contracts and profit guidance, directly challenges traditional cyclical patterns. The market is now correcting the previously pessimistic valuations.

Gold's upward trend remains intact; conditions for a year-end recovery in Hong Kong stocks are accumulating. Central bank gold purchases and the declining probability of rate hikes provide underlying support for gold. Hong Kong is the only major market that has not risen this year, and valuation repairs after a series of earnings reports are worth watching.

Rally enters a new phase, shifting from market-wide to stock-specific

The internal structure of the current rally shifted noticeably last week: Samsung rose nearly 17%, SK Hynix nearly 14%, and Advantest nearly 17%, making memory and testing equipment the new leading sectors. In contrast, Broadcom, which had been leading, fell more than 8%, while Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet also saw declines. Funds have not left the market but have shifted within the AI supply chain from fully priced platform layers to profit-revised, undervalued memory and equipment layers. It is also important to note changes in positions: hedge fund net leverage has risen from a low point to about 80%, approaching historical warning levels. Combined with the密集的财报考验后的估值修复值得部署关注。

記憶體：市場先給了晚週期的價格，基本面卻還沒走到晚週期

漲價動能放緩是事實——第三季DRAM合約價漲幅預估由第二季的65%降至約17%；但庫存結構顯示，回升的主要是手機與PC等消費類環節，原廠自身庫存仍處週期早期的低位，韓國8月上旬半導體出口年增逾150%亦顯示需求端未見鬆動。真正的轉折來自SanDisk投資者日：給出2028至2030財年毛利率約80%、營收年增15%至19%的長期指引，並以長約鎖定未來兩年過半的位元出貨——以合約平滑週期的新商業模式若獲同業跟進，記憶體的估值框架將被重寫。目前主要記憶體股的預估本益比仍低於上一輪晚週期水準，定價與基本面之間的錯位正在收斂。投資部維持記憶體類股的正面看法，後續兩項監控訊號：第四季合約價走勢，以及原廠庫存週數是否升破七至九週的警戒區間。

黃金：高檔盤整不改上升通道，底層買家是央行

金價目前約4,400美元，近一個月上漲約9%，本週在高檔橫盤。支撐這輪行情的並非短線資金：全球央行今年第一季淨購金244噸，調查顯示45%的央行計劃續增黃金儲備、比例創歷史新高；中國人行7月增持約20噸並將部分儲備由倫敦移往香港，黃金ETF亦自7月下旬起重新流入。在9月升息機率回落、美債長端殖利率高檔震盪的組合下，黃金同時受惠於實際利率壓力減輕與主權信用溢價對沖兩條邏輯——後者反映的是市場對財政擴張與央行獨立性的長期定價，不隨單月數據起伏。UBS預期2027年上半年上看5,000美元，並視4,000美元下方為布局區間。投資部維持黃金的配置價值判斷；需要留意的反向訊號是通膨數據意外走熱令9月升息重回檯面、推升實際利率。

港股：今年唯一還沒漲的主要市場，修復的條件正在累積

恆生指數年初至今仍小幅下跌，與日經上漲逾36%、台股上漲逾58%形成鮮明對比。本週港股在財報消化中回調，騰訊在公布資本支出年增176%、自由現金流首度轉負後單週下跌約7%——市場延續了先看到收入對應物、再給予獎勵的定價紀律，並未預先獎勵資本投入。但多項條件正在改善：南向資金持續大額淨流入，恆指50日與200日均線正逼近2024年9月以來的首次黃金交叉，估值折讓仍深，且美元利率路徑轉向友善。月底阿里巴巴、平安、中信證券等財報有望成為催化劑——若平台業者能展示AI資本支出的變現路徑，估值修復的空間將被打開。投資部對港股維持正面看法，同時提示斜率的兩個制約：內地通縮壓力未解（7月CPI年增僅0.5%）、地產調整仍在進行，修復行情更可能以科技與高股息的結構性形式展開，而非全面性牛市。

The Week Ahead

Date	Event	What to Watch
08/18	Home Depot財報；英國7月失業率	美國零售財報週開場，消費韌性與關稅成本傳導檢驗
08/19	聯準會7月會議紀要；Target、Lowe's財報；歐元區7月通膨終值	9比3表決下鷹派少數的論據細節，是9月路徑的重要線索
08/20	Walmart財報	美國消費風向標，毛利率反映關稅吸收程度
08/21	全球8月製造業與服務業PMI初值	數據淡週中少數的即時景氣讀數，關注服務業價格分項
08/26	美國7月核心PCE；輝達財報	9月決策前最關鍵通膨讀數與AI行情的獲利了結壓力測試同日登場
08/27	Jackson Hole央行年會開幕（至08/29）	沃什上任後首次年會演說，通膨表態與政策框架訊號

※ Extracted from the Investment Research Weekly (17 August 2026) prepared by our Investment Department. For general reference only; this does not constitute investment advice or an offer. Please refer to the Disclaimers.